The Magic of CompoundingPart II
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Posted: 05/01/2008-22/09/2010 || Rate this Article: 3 || Views
Buffet took about $100 million out of that first partnership for himself, so he was working with $100 million, keep that in mind. In 1974 when the bear market bottomed, it might have been early 1975, he started another rise...he took over Berkshire Hathaway. Buffet, since the 1970's, has been getting a compounded (remember that means exponential) growth rate of about 22 to 24%.
This is where I introduce you to the cousin of the Magic of Compounding, which is called the Rule of 72. With the Rule of 72 you can calculate how long it will take you to double your money at any given rate of return. OK? Lets take an example. If you're earning 12% on your money and you want to know how long it will take to double it (we're compounding, remember?) divide 72 by 12, and your answer is 6. It will take 6 years to double your money. Lets do another one. If you're getting 6% on your money, divide 72 by 6 and you'll see that it will take 12 years to double. If you're getting 9%, it's 72 divided by 9, or 8 years to double up.
As for Warren Buffett, he's getting 22% on his money. This means you divide 72 by 22 and gee, in only 3.27 years, or every 3 years and 4 months, he doubles his money. Since he's been at it about 35 years with that $100 million he had to play with, he's doubled his original $100 million almost nine times. You get that by taking 35 years and dividing by a double every 3 years and 4 months. It equals 10.70, or let's go with nine doubles to adjust for a rate of compounding that is varying. The key point is he's not making 9 times his money with the $100 million, that would be an arithmetic progression that would give him $900 million. He's making nine doubles, a geometric or compounded progression.
Let's see how that works.
Warren Buffet's Geometric ProgressionStarting Dollar Amount: $100 millionTime Periods Involved: Nine 3 year and 4 month periodsPeriod Time Taken Compounded Gain0 Starting Point $100,000,0001 3 years, 4 months later $200,000,0002 6 years, 8 months later $400,000,0003 10 years later $800,000,0004 13 years, 4 months later $1,600,000,0005 16 years, 8 months later $3,200,000,0006 20 years later $6,400,000,0007 23 years, 4 months later $12,800,000,0008 26 years, 8 months later $25,600,000,0009 30 years later $51,200,000,000I believe Buffet is worth about $47 billion. It doesn't matter, he is somewhere in his ninth double. This is the magic of compounding! Also, he never sells. This means his money is doubling every three years and four months with no tax consequences. He gets taxed only when he sells. Under normal conditions, the money compounds until he dies, then it's taxed at a capital gains rate in the far distant future. In Buffetts case, hes giving most of his wealth to the Gates foundation to benefit society.
Teach your children to live a balanced life, and also help them master this concept and you will have very happy and very rich children. In stocks I show you how to make money at the bottom by buying depressed securities that are going to come right back, making you a fortune as they rocket off the bottom. In the future I will also show you how to make money with the Warren Buffet concept, or classical Graham and Dodd analysis. In the mean time, good luck with understanding the magic of compounding.
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